It's election day and I'm watching Melitina Castellanos Suazo cast the official first vote in the Honduran elections (she voted for Pepe Lobo). The atmosphere in the country is one of muted optimism; a kind of happy holding of the the collective breath. Questions linger in the mind of every Honduran: Will Manuel Zelaya pull yet another card from his sleeve? Will the communists and criminals successfully disrupt the electoral process? Will there be random violent attacks and protests forcing the populace to stay in their homes rather than perform their civic duty? Having come this far you would think that the Honduran people would have more confidence in themselves, and I believe they do. Unfortunately the medias relentless quest for the next sensational story forces them to turn every hiccup into a heart attack.
Into this mêlée I leap to confidently assert that the Honduras elections will be a total success. How can I qualify the elections as a complete success, you might ask, if the OAS will not recognize the validity of the elections? Easy. Elections are the collective voice of a sovereign nation determining the future of its people. Given that this is an internal matter, no one here gives a rip what the OAS's (or anyone else for that matter) opinion is on the subject of Honduran self determination.
The success of the elections today will be the semifinal victory (the finals being the inauguration of the new democratically elected president on January 27th) of an country that faced the entire western hemisphere as its opponent, and won. My confidence in the elections successful execution comes from watching Honduras play a hard fought game without ever once fumbling the ball. Hence, I don't see them throwing away a game that is essentially won, in the last quarter of regulation play.
Our arrival at this historic juncture arouses a desire to review how this crisis of rebellion was precipitated, as well as the reasons for its failure. For Jose Manuel Zelaya was only one component in a recipe that, in the end, lacked the ingredients necessary to create the perfect Revolution Pie.
For those of you inexperienced in the political culinary arts, Revolution Pie is what every self respecting Marxist attempts to bake in the oven of non-vigilant democracies. The recipe for Honduras is as follows:
Honduran Revolution Pie
1. One Enormous Ego (Zelaya)
2. One zealous True Believer (Patricia Rodas)
3. Two weak, corrupted and diluted houses (Congress and Supreme court)
4. Multiple cups of Poor and Huddled Masses
5. A sprinkle of Criminal Opportunist
6. Generous amounts of International Community support
7. Whip vigorously
As in all recipes, in order to achieve the desired results you must have all of the ingredients present, and have them in sufficient quantities. I think we all are in agreement that Patricia Rodas, the True Believing queen behind the throne, was certainly was hitting on all cylinders. She knew just how to manipulate Zelaya's ego to get him to ride point on this endeavor and also possessed a vast pool of communistic connections. We will never know just how much Zelaya knew (or cared) that he was being used, for Rodas' insatiable lust for power was only rivaled by his own.
The True Believer, combined with The Ego, would have been able to successfully exert their will over the masses if there would have been support of the Congress and Supreme Court. These two governing bodies had to give their tacit approval, either due to lack of courage, or because they were in on the game. What the dynamic duo grossly underestimated was the backbone of these two branches of government. When it came time to cook, ingredient #3 was no where to be found.
Hence the weakness of the recipe and why democratic people with a little courage can stop the preparation of Revolution Pie wherever it may be found: No one ingredient can make a pie. The Ego needs a philosophy that rationalizes his egregious destruction of the very system that he uses to obtain power. The True Believer needs a front man, a charismatic figure masquerading as a champion of the poor and disenfranchised. The masses need a catalyst, a cause vivid enough to inspire and maintain resolve over the stretch of time necessary to achieve the desired end; even if that cause is based on lies (Robin Hood to the rescue). And even if all of those ingredients are mixed together it will not make the pie if there is a strong division of powers combined with a military that will adhere to the constitution and rule of law: exactly what was found in Honduras.
Thus the attempt by Zelaya, Rodas, the Marxists and anarchists (under the approving gaze of the International Community) to bake Honduran Revolution Pie has temporarily failed. They gave it their very best shot and there is simply no more ammunition left to disrupt the elections. If the highly motivated True Believers could not create the needed ground swell with a flood of cash ($4 million flooding into the currency black market on a good week), and the organizational infrastructure provided by a totally supportive executive branch. If they were unable to stir the masses and bully the division of powers into accepting their demands when they were at their virulent best, then it will be impossible for them to stop or discredit the elections.
Which is exactly why The United States decided to hedge its bet with this electoral recognition maneuver. Obama is just as much a left wing radical as Patricia Rodas (the fact that he pushed this reinstatement farce as far as he did, in the face of all reason and moral logic, showed his true colors), but even he knows how to pick his battles. The U.S. State Department will now pull back, regroup and surreptitiously support the left throughout Central America, albeit from a greater strategic altitude. Don't think for a moment that because the U.S. is recognizing the elections that they are now friends with Honduras. Hillary, if I were you I would watch your back. Now that Patricia Rodas is out of a job Obama is probably toying with the idea of making her Secretary of State.
As for Jose Manuel Zelaya, he will eventually have to leave the country. No doubt his first stop will be Brazil. The involvement of their embassy in this affair will require a necessary dance of diplomatic protocol between the two countries. As for his final destination, my money is on the guilt ridden mother country willing to offer asylum to all of her prodigal step children: Spain.